The OLD Philosopher – John M. Miller
There was a famous nineteenth century German historian whose name was Gerhard von Ranke. Ranke believed that it was the duty of historians simply to report facts when they wrote their histories about anything.
Most historians since Ranke’s time have written as though their real task is to interpret facts rather than simply to report facts. Why did so-and-so do such-and-such? How did this legislation or that war change things? Mere facts are often as dry as dust; it is the interpretation of those facts that makes history a fascinating intellectual discipline.
In a sense, therefore, history is what historians say history it is. History thus does not become history until “the facts” are interpreted.
** * * *
Since COVID-19 first reared its ugly pointed-headed-self in Wuhan, China late last year, the world has become inundated with a deluge of un-interpreted “facts” about this novel coronavirus. Epidemiologists have many opinions, but to date it is nearly impossible to be certain of many “facts” regarding this enigmatic plague.
Here are some examples of the innumerable opinions about COVID-19. Eventually 70% of Americans will be afflicted by it, one expert declared. Between 50 and 150 million American eventually will die from it, said another. There will be no vaccine for the virus for at least a year to a year-and-a-half, other experts have insisted. Others say vaccines are already being tested.
It is claimed that you can catch the virus by touching a surface which an infected person has touched. Others agree that is possible, but unlikely. If you recover from the virus, it will never afflict you again, some insist. Other experts say it can return many times in any of its victims.
The news media have almost exclusively devoted themselves to COVID-19 for the past five months, but especially in the past three months. What are the facts about this virus at this point, and what are merely opinions? Are the experts telling us what they know, or is it only what they think? What are the facts about what is happening, and what instead are interpretations of what is happening, but still with no possible possession of all the facts?
No one knows what is going to happen as a result of this pandemic. Predictions are constantly being made by people who are knowledgeable in epidemiology, but apparently it is too soon to interpret the data sufficiently clearly that all of us can safely determine for ourselves what behavior we should or should not follow. Too few facts are certain. If something isn’t certain, by definition it cannot be factual.
Currently we have no choice but to study conflicting expert opinions and then decide for ourselves how to proceed from day to day. Human beings are very diverse, and thereforethere will never be universal agreement on how we should conduct ourselves from now on, if only because we have no idea how long “from now on” is.
In college I majored in history. I have always been greatly edified by reading history and biography. The lockdown hibernation has enabled me to read more history and other subjects in a three-month period than I have ever read before, including my four years in college.
I’ll be delighted when the “facts” about COVID-19 are far more certain than they are now. In the meantime, I admit that I will pay less and less attention to the news than I have for my entire life, and I shall read more and more non-fiction books. At least there I can more objectively judge the “factual” veracity of what I am reading, and interpret for myself whether or not I think what is written is accurate. In the meantime, within in the next decade the virus “facts” might emerge.
John Miller is Pastor of The Chapel Without Walls on Hilton Head Island, SC. More of his writings may be viewed at www.chapelwithoutwalls.org.